{"id":5254,"date":"2026-06-28T10:20:57","date_gmt":"2026-06-28T10:20:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/?p=5254"},"modified":"2026-06-28T10:20:57","modified_gmt":"2026-06-28T10:20:57","slug":"dakotas-severe-weather-june-28-2026","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/dakotas-severe-weather-june-28-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Dakotas Severe Weather Outlook: Slight Risk June 28, 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe src=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog_outlook.php?event=dakotas-severe-weather-slight-risk-june-28-2026\" title=\"Dakotas Severe Weather Outlook: Slight Risk June 28, 2026\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%;border:0;\" height=\"660\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Dakotas severe weather is the headline concern in the NOAA Storm Prediction Center&#8217;s Day 1 Convective Outlook issued June 28, 2026, with a Slight Risk covering the Dakotas, northwest Minnesota, northern Iowa, and parts of Wisconsin. The SPC warns that large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards, with elevated supercells overnight capable of producing hail 2 to 3 inches in diameter across western South Dakota into southern North Dakota.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) covers the Dakotas, northwest Minnesota, and northern Iowa.<\/li>\n<li>Hail up to 2 to 3 inches in diameter possible overnight across western SD and southern ND.<\/li>\n<li>Northern Iowa storm threat peaks this morning into early afternoon; Dakotas threat peaks tonight.<\/li>\n<li>SPC hazard probabilities: large hail 15 percent, damaging wind 15 percent.<\/li>\n<li>Wisconsin faces isolated large hail and strong gusts by late evening.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Where and When the Threat Develops<\/h2>\n<p>The storm timeline splits into two distinct phases. A cluster of morning storms is already ongoing near the southwest Minnesota and northwest Iowa border, a continuation of overnight activity along the Nebraska and South Dakota line. These storms will track along a warm frontal boundary and a buoyancy gradient, posing a threat for occasional large hail and wind damage through midday and early afternoon across northern Iowa.<\/p>\n<p>A warm front will push surface dewpoints into the 70s northward into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin through the day. A warm elevated mixed layer over the central Plains will suppress additional storm development across much of the warm sector during the afternoon, though a few storms are possible in North Dakota. The SPC cautions that storm coverage and intensity in North Dakota remain uncertain given only weak to moderate instability and limited forcing for lift.<\/p>\n<p>The core of the Dakotas severe weather threat arrives tonight. A lee cyclone is expected to form near northeast Colorado this afternoon and then track northeast across Nebraska and into South Dakota overnight. Moisture and lift ahead of that surface low will fuel elevated thunderstorm development across western South Dakota and southern North Dakota. The SPC expects those storms to organize as elevated supercells capable of very large hail 2 to 3 inches in diameter and occasional severe gusts. Further east, warm air advection focused across Wisconsin by late evening will support at least isolated large hail and strong gusts from largely elevated storms.<\/p>\n<h2>Meteorologist&#8217;s Take<\/h2>\n<p>The driving force behind this setup is a broad closed upper-level low parked over the northern Great Basin and Rockies, with a belt of south-southwesterly mid-level winds around 50 knots extending from Colorado through the Dakotas. Meanwhile, the primary surface cyclone is occluding far to the north near the Saskatchewan and Alberta border, allowing a separate, fresh lee cyclone to spin up over northeast Colorado this afternoon. That new low is the key player in organizing the overnight severe threat.<\/p>\n<p>The warm elevated mixed layer, visible in overnight soundings across the central Plains, is a classic capping feature that will keep storms suppressed across much of the warm sector during the day. Once the lee cyclone advances and moisture wraps northward overnight, that cap weakens enough to allow storm development. The SPC expects discrete elevated supercells in this environment, not a broad squall line, which is why very large hail is the headline hazard rather than a widespread wind event. Elevated storms lack the surface-based inflow that drives the most intense tornadoes, but they are more than capable of producing destructive hail and severe gusts.<\/p>\n<p>SPC uses a five-tier system to communicate severe weather potential; you can review <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/weather-articles\/severe-weather-outlook\/\">how the outlook risk categories work<\/a> for full context. In this case, the Slight Risk is the second of five severe categories (level 2 of 5), meaning scattered severe storms are expected but not widespread or extremely intense conditions.<\/p>\n<h2>How to Stay Safe from Large Hail and Damaging Wind<\/h2>\n<p>The primary threats across the Dakotas severe weather zone today are large to very large hail and wind gusts in the severe range. Hail 2 to 3 inches in diameter can cause significant damage to vehicles, roofs, and skylights with little warning. If storms are approaching, move vehicles into a garage or under solid cover, and stay away from windows once a storm arrives.<\/p>\n<p>Severe wind gusts can down trees and power lines, particularly overnight when storms may be harder to see and hear. Avoid parking under large trees during active warnings, and bring in any outdoor furniture or lightweight objects that could become projectiles. Residents in western South Dakota, southern North Dakota, northwest Minnesota, and northern Iowa should monitor conditions closely through the afternoon and evening. Check your <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/analysis.php#alerts\">active weather alerts<\/a> and keep a battery-powered weather radio or a reliable alert app ready before you go to sleep, since the worst of the Dakotas threat arrives overnight.<\/p>\n<p>Anyone in northern Iowa should be alert this morning and early afternoon, as the ongoing storm cluster may produce hail and damaging gusts along the warm frontal zone before the main heating of the day. Wisconsin residents should watch for rapidly developing storms after sunset. You can also track storm movement on <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/analysis.php?tab=radar\">live radar and alerts<\/a> throughout the day.<\/p>\n<p>Dakotas severe weather events often unfold faster than expected when supercells are involved. Do not wait for a warning to take action. Know your shelter location in advance and act the moment a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued for your county.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spc.noaa.gov\/products\/outlook\/day1otlk.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Convective Outlook, June 28, 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dakotas severe weather threatens large hail up to 2\u20133 inches and damaging winds on June 28, 2026. Northern Iowa and Wisconsin also in the Slight Risk zone.<span class=\"more\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/dakotas-severe-weather-june-28-2026\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5256,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"Dakotas severe weather","rank_math_title":"Dakotas Severe Weather: 2\u20133 Inch Hail Possible June 28","rank_math_description":"Dakotas severe weather threatens large hail up to 2\u20133 inches and damaging winds on June 28, 2026. Northern Iowa and Wisconsin also in the Slight Risk zone."},"categories":[719],"tags":[119,772],"class_list":["post-5254","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-events","tag-severe-weather","tag-spc-outlook"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5254","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5254"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5254\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5257,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5254\/revisions\/5257"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5254"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5254"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5254"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}