{"id":5282,"date":"2026-06-29T18:14:15","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T18:14:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/?p=5282"},"modified":"2026-06-29T18:14:15","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T18:14:15","slug":"northern-plains-severe-weather-june-29","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/northern-plains-severe-weather-june-29\/","title":{"rendered":"Northern Plains Severe Weather: Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible June 29"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>  <iframe src=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog_outlook.php?event=northern-plains-severe-weather-june-29-2026\" title=\"Northern Plains Severe \n  Weather: Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible June 29\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width:100%;border:0;\" height=\"660\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Northern Plains severe weather is in the forecast today, June 29, 2026, as the NOAA Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of<br \/>\n  the Dakotas, the Upper Midwest, and the Mid-Missouri Valley under a Slight Risk, the second of five severe categories (level 2 of<br \/>\n  5). Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are all possible through the day, with supercell thunderstorms the primary<br \/>\n  vehicle for these hazards.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) covers the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on June 29.<\/li>\n<li>Primary Northern Plains severe weather hazards: large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.<\/li>\n<li>SPC tornado probability: 5%; large hail and damaging wind each at 15%.<\/li>\n<li>Elevated supercells likely ongoing early; additional storms expected near warm front into North Dakota and Minnesota.<\/li>\n<li>A couple of tornadoes are possible if storms become surface-based.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>What the SPC Is Forecasting<\/h2>\n<p>The Storm Prediction Center&#8217;s Day 1 outlook, valid for June 29, 2026, identifies the core threat zone for this Northern Plains<br \/>\n  severe weather event as portions of the Dakotas, extending into Minnesota and the Upper Midwest, with a secondary focus back into the<br \/>\n  Mid-Missouri Valley and central Plains along a cold front. SPC uses a five-tier system to communicate severe weather potential, and<br \/>\n  you can review exactly what each category means through this <a \n  href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/weather-articles\/severe-weather-outlook\/\">iAlert guide to SPC outlook risk categories<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>According to the SPC, elevated supercell activity is likely already ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low<br \/>\n  crossing the Dakotas, positioned near the nose of the low-level jet. As the day unfolds, a warm front is expected to push into North<br \/>\n  Dakota and Minnesota by afternoon, with additional storm development anticipated both near that boundary and back along the cold<br \/>\n  front. The SPC places the probability of large hail at 15 percent, damaging wind at 15 percent, and tornadoes at 5 percent within the<br \/>\n  risk areas.<\/p>\n<h2>Meteorologist&#8217;s Take<\/h2>\n<p>The trigger for today&#8217;s Northern Plains severe weather is a shortwave trough, a dip in the upper-level flow, advancing eastward<br \/>\n  out of the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. At the surface, a low-pressure center is tracking northward out of Nebraska<br \/>\n  into the Dakotas. Attached to that low is a cold front and dry line pushing southward and a secondary low developing across the<br \/>\n  central Plains. This combination creates a favorable corridor for organized, rotating thunderstorms known as supercells.<\/p>\n<p>The environment features moderate to strong instability alongside deep-layer wind shear of around 45 to 50 knots, meaning winds<br \/>\n  are both strong and rapidly changing direction and speed with altitude. That combination is what helps thunderstorm updrafts rotate.<br \/>\n  Near the warm front in North Dakota and Minnesota, a plume of steep low-to-mid-level temperature lapse rates, meaning the atmosphere<br \/>\n  cools unusually fast with height, is expected to surge northward through the afternoon, adding fuel for any storms that develop<br \/>\n  there. The SPC notes that if afternoon storms become surface-based rather than elevated, they will be capable of producing all hazard<br \/>\n  types, including large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and tornadoes.<\/p>\n<p>The main forecast uncertainty centers on how the morning convection evolves. If early storms leave behind a stable air mass,<br \/>\n  afternoon development could be limited. If the atmosphere recovers, the warm-front and cold-front zones both become active corridors<br \/>\n  for supercell development, which is why the SPC has maintained the Slight Risk designation across a broad area of the northern Plains<br \/>\n  severe weather region.<\/p>\n<h2>How to Stay Safe from Northern Plains Severe Weather<\/h2>\n<p>The dominant threats for this Northern Plains severe weather event are large to very large hail and damaging winds,<br \/>\n  with a lower but real tornado risk. If you are in the Dakotas, Minnesota, or the Upper Midwest today, take the following steps<br \/>\n  matched to these specific hazards:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Hail:<\/strong> Move vehicles into a garage or covered structure before storms arrive. Hail damage can happen within<br \/>\n  seconds once a supercell is overhead.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Damaging winds:<\/strong> Stay away from windows and secure or bring in outdoor furniture, trampolines, and anything<br \/>\n  that can become a projectile. Downed trees and power lines are common after severe wind events.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Tornadoes:<\/strong> Know your shelter location now: an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building, away<br \/>\n  from windows. A basement is best.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Stay informed:<\/strong> Storms can move fast across the northern Plains. Monitor <a \n  href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/analysis.php?tab=radar\">live radar and active alerts<\/a> throughout the afternoon and evening.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You can also check your personalized <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/forecast.php\">local weather forecast<\/a> for the most up-to-date<br \/>\n  guidance for your specific location within the Northern Plains severe weather risk area. Supercell thunderstorms associated with<br \/>\n  Northern Plains severe weather can produce their worst hazards in a very short time window, so acting before storms arrive is far<br \/>\n  safer than reacting once they are on top of you.<\/p>\n<p>Watch for any Severe Thunderstorm Warnings or Tornado Warnings issued by your local National Weather Service office throughout the<br \/>\n  day. The SPC outlook sets the stage, but official warnings are your action trigger. Sign up for <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/\">iAlert<br \/>\n  weather alerts and notifications<\/a> to receive real-time warnings for your location so you never miss a critical update.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.spc.noaa.gov\/products\/outlook\/day1otlk.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NOAA Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 Convective Outlook, June<br \/>\n  29, 2026<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Northern Plains severe weather is possible June 29, 2026. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes threaten the Dakotas and Upper Midwest.<span class=\"more\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/northern-plains-severe-weather-june-29\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"Northern Plains severe weather","rank_math_title":"Northern Plains Severe Weather: 15% Hail Risk Jun 29","rank_math_description":"Northern Plains severe weather is possible June 29. Large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes threaten the Dakotas and Upper Midwest."},"categories":[719],"tags":[119,772],"class_list":["post-5282","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-events","tag-severe-weather","tag-spc-outlook"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5282"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5282\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5288,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5282\/revisions\/5288"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}