{"id":5673,"date":"2026-09-13T22:37:44","date_gmt":"2026-09-13T22:37:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/?p=5673"},"modified":"2026-09-13T22:37:44","modified_gmt":"2026-09-13T22:37:44","slug":"tropical-storm-norbert-forecast-sep-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/tropical-storm-norbert-forecast-sep-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast: 45 mph Storm Weakens 1,375 Miles East of Hilo, Hawaii"},"content":{"rendered":"<br \/>\n<figure style=\"margin:0 0 24px 0;border:1px solid #d8dde3;border-radius:6px;padding:8px;background:#ffffff;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" \n  src=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ialert-tropical-storm-norbert-forecast-track-hawaii-september-13-2026.jpg\" alt=\"Tropical Storm Norbert\n  forecast track on September 13, 2026, showing the 45 mph storm about 1,375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, weakening to a remnant low by Tuesday night\" \n  width=\"1600\" height=\"842\" style=\"width:100%;max-width:100%;height:auto;border-radius:4px;\" \/><figcaption \n  style=\"font-size:14px;line-height:1.45;color:#555555;margin-top:10px;padding:0 4px 4px 4px;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/hurricanes.php\">iAlert hurricane<br \/>\n  tracker<\/a> satellite view of the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast from the 11 AM HST advisory on Sunday, September 13, 2026, with the Hawaiian Islands<br \/>\n  highlighted. Green S markers show Norbert at tropical storm strength through 8 PM Monday. Blue D markers show winds below tropical storm strength on Tuesday,<br \/>\n  with a post-tropical remnant low forecast by 8 PM Tuesday about 535 miles east of Hilo. The partial cone at lower right belongs to a separate system, Tropical<br \/>\n  Depression Fifteen-E. The shaded cone shows the probable track of the center, not the size of the storm. Data: NOAA National Hurricane<br \/>\n  Center.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>The Tropical Storm Norbert forecast from the National Hurricane Center at 11 AM HST Sunday, September 13, 2026, shows the storm weakening slightly, with<br \/>\n  maximum sustained winds near 45 mph while centered about 1,375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, and about 1,580 miles west of the southern tip of Baja California.<br \/>\n  There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect, and the advisory lists no hazards affecting land.<\/p>\n<p>Norbert is forecast to drop below tropical storm strength by Tuesday morning, become a post-tropical remnant low by 8 PM HST Tuesday about 535 miles east of<br \/>\n  Hilo, and dissipate by 8 AM HST Wednesday, September 16.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, gusts to 50 knots (about 58 mph), minimum pressure 1002 mb.<\/li>\n<li>Center near 18.8N 134.0W, about 1,375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, moving west-northwest near 13 mph.<\/li>\n<li>No coastal watches or warnings, and no hazards affecting land.<\/li>\n<li>No strengthening forecast: tropical depression by 8 AM HST Tuesday, remnant low by 8 PM HST Tuesday.<\/li>\n<li>Closest forecast point is about 535 miles east of Hilo, as a remnant low that dissipates by Wednesday.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"background: #000000; padding: 20px 24px; margin: 20px 0; border-radius: 4px;\">\n<p style=\"color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0 0 6px 0;\">Get Severe Weather Alerts for Your Location<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgba(255,255,255,0.9); margin: 0 0 14px 0;\">When any NWS watch, warning, or advisory is issued for your area, iAlert sends you an immediate notification by email, text message, or phone call, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/services\/severe-weather-alerts.php\" style=\"background: #C41226; color: #ffffff; padding: 10px 22px; text-decoration: none; border-radius: 3px; font-weight: bold; display: inline-block;\">Sign Up for Severe Weather Alerts &rarr;<\/a>\n<\/div>\n<h2>Where the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast stands right now<\/h2>\n<p>Advisory Number 17, issued at 11 AM HST Sunday (2100 UTC, 2 PM PDT, 5 PM EDT), placed the center of Norbert near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 134.0 West.<br \/>\n  The storm was moving toward the west-northwest, 290 degrees, near 13 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure was 1002 mb (29.59 inches).<\/p>\n<p>Maximum sustained winds decreased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. The National Hurricane Center says some fluctuations in intensity remain possible for<br \/>\n  the rest of Sunday, followed by a gradual weakening trend.<\/p>\n<p>Tropical-storm-force winds, 39 mph or greater, extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. The quadrant radii in the Forecast\/Advisory show that reach<br \/>\n  is lopsided: about 105 miles in the northwest quadrant and 90 miles in the northeast, but only about 35 miles southwest and 25 miles southeast.<\/p>\n<p>The Tropical Storm Norbert forecast has trended weaker since Saturday. The 5 AM HST Saturday advisory had Norbert at 60 mph with a forecast peak of 65 mph.<br \/>\n  Sunday&#8217;s advisory has 45 mph with no strengthening, and the remnant low stage now arrives by 8 PM HST Tuesday instead of 2 AM HST Wednesday. Our <a \n  href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/tropical-storm-norbert-sep-12-2026\/\">Saturday Tropical Storm Norbert coverage<\/a> has the earlier forecast.<\/p>\n<h2>What the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast shows through Wednesday<\/h2>\n<p>Norbert is expected to move west-northwestward to westward over the next few days as it travels south of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. NHC nudged<br \/>\n  the track slightly north of its previous forecast, and it remains close to the corrected multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean<br \/>\n  (GDMI).<\/p>\n<p>The Tropical Storm Norbert forecast track crosses 140 West into the Central Pacific basin between the 8 AM and 8 PM HST forecast points on Monday, September<br \/>\n  14. The 8 PM HST Monday point, about 890 miles east of Hilo, is the last one with tropical-storm-force winds, which by then reach only about 45 miles<br \/>\n  northeast and 35 miles northwest of the center.<\/p>\n<p>The Tropical Storm Norbert forecast points below come from NHC Forecast\/Advisory 17. All times are HST, and distances from Hilo are calculated by<br \/>\n  iAlert.<\/p>\n<p><\/p>\n<div style=\"overflow-x:auto;margin:0 0 20px 0;\">\n<table style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:15px;\">\n<thead>\n<tr style=\"background:#f1f4f7;\">\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Forecast time (HST)<\/th>\n<th \n  style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Position<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Max winds<\/th>\n<th \n  style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Status<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Distance from Hilo,<br \/>\n  Hawaii<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Sun Sep 13, 11 AM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">18.8N 134.0W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">45 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tropical storm<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px\n  solid #d8dde3;\">1,375 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Sun Sep 13, 8 PM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">19.2N 136.0W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">45 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tropical storm<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px\n  solid #d8dde3;\">1,245 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Mon Sep 14, 8 AM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">19.7N 138.6W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">40 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tropical storm<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px\n  solid #d8dde3;\">1,070 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Mon Sep 14, 8 PM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">20.2N 141.4W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">40 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tropical storm<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px\n  solid #d8dde3;\">890 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tue Sep 15, 8 AM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">20.7N 144.0W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">35 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tropical depression<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">720 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Tue Sep 15, 8 PM<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">20.8N 146.9W<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">30 mph<\/td>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Post-tropical remnant low<\/td>\n<td \n  style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">535 miles east<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Wed Sep 16, 8 AM<\/td>\n<td colspan=\"4\" style=\"padding:8px;border:1px solid #d8dde3;\">Dissipated<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table><\/div>\n<p>By 8 AM HST Tuesday, September 15, Norbert is forecast to be a tropical depression with 35 mph winds, and by 8 PM HST Tuesday a post-tropical remnant low<br \/>\n  with 30 mph winds. That 8 PM Tuesday point is the closest forecast approach, about 535 miles east of Hilo. Dissipation is forecast by 8 AM HST Wednesday,<br \/>\n  September 16.<\/p>\n<p>NHC also began advisories Sunday on a separate system, Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, far to the east near 17.2N 117.2W. Its first forecast takes it to a<br \/>\n  remnant low near 16.0N 133.0W by Thursday, September 17, which is the partial cone at the lower right of the image above.<\/p>\n<h2>Meteorologist&#8217;s take<\/h2>\n<p>Satellite imagery explains Sunday&#8217;s downgrade. NHC noted that Norbert&#8217;s center had become exposed on visible imagery, with the bulk of the thunderstorms on<br \/>\n  the south and east sides of the storm, and water vapor imagery showed a good amount of dry air penetrating the core. An exposed center is the signature of a<br \/>\n  cyclone losing its vertical structure.<\/p>\n<p>The intensity estimates did not line up neatly. The TAFB Dvorak estimate (a method that reads storm strength from satellite cloud patterns) came in near 45<br \/>\n  knots, about 52 mph. The UW-CIMSS objective estimates ranged from 32 to 39 knots, about 37 to 45 mph, and an ASCAT scatterometer pass (a satellite instrument<br \/>\n  that measures wind at the ocean surface) found the strongest winds near the center around 37 knots, about 43 mph. Weighing those, NHC lowered the initial<br \/>\n  intensity to 40 knots, or 45 mph.<\/p>\n<p>NHC describes a marginal environment. Norbert continues to contend with mid-level dry air intrusions and light west-southwesterly vertical wind shear, and<br \/>\n  after 12 hours that shear is expected to increase, which should result in gradual weakening. Around 60 hours, 8 PM HST Tuesday, simulated GFS and ECMWF<br \/>\n  satellite imagery shows the cyclone losing organized deep convection. That is why the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast calls for a post-tropical remnant low at<br \/>\n  that time and dissipation by around 72 hours.<\/p>\n<p>For reference, a post-tropical remnant low no longer has the organized thunderstorm activity required of a tropical cyclone, and its maximum sustained winds<br \/>\n  are below 39 mph. A tropical depression has sustained winds of 38 mph or less, a tropical storm 39 to 73 mph, and a hurricane 74 mph or more.<\/p>\n<p>The takeaway: track guidance continues to show good agreement on Norbert&#8217;s general heading, and the NHC intensity forecast sits in line with the HCCA and<br \/>\n  GDMI consensus. With both pointing to a weakening storm moving into shear and dry air, this is a marine story, not a Hawaii story. The forecast cone shows the<br \/>\n  probable track of the center, not the size of the storm or the reach of its impacts.<\/p>\n<h2>Who needs to act on the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast<\/h2>\n<p>There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. A tropical storm or hurricane watch means those conditions are possible within 48 hours, and a warning<br \/>\n  means they are expected within 36 hours. The last forecast point with tropical-storm-force winds sits about 890 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii.<\/p>\n<p>Mariners are the only group with an active concern in the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast. Seas of 4 meters (13 feet) or higher extend up to about 105 miles<br \/>\n  northeast of the center, 85 miles northwest, and 35 miles in the southeast and southwest quadrants. NHC has requested 3-hourly ship reports from vessels<br \/>\n  within 300 miles of the center, and crews in that area should follow NWS high seas forecasts and report conditions.<\/p>\n<p>For residents of Hawaii, the Tropical Storm Norbert forecast calls for monitoring, not preparation. NHC lists no land hazards, and the system is forecast to<br \/>\n  be a remnant low at its closest point. Follow Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E on the <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/hurricanes.php\">iAlert hurricane<br \/>\n  tracker<\/a> as new advisories arrive every six hours.<\/p>\n<p>The Central Pacific hurricane season runs through November 30. Keep a way to receive warnings that does not depend on Wi-Fi or home power, and review your<br \/>\n  plan each time a storm enters the basin.<\/p>\n<h2>Tropical Storm Norbert forecast FAQ<\/h2>\n<h3>Is Tropical Storm Norbert a danger to Hawaii?<\/h3>\n<p>No. The National Hurricane Center lists no hazards affecting land and no coastal watches or warnings. The closest forecast approach is about 535 miles east<br \/>\n  of Hilo, Hawaii, at 8 PM HST Tuesday, September 15, when Norbert is expected to be a post-tropical remnant low.<\/p>\n<h3>How strong is Tropical Storm Norbert?<\/h3>\n<p>Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts as of 11 AM HST Sunday, September 13, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. The Tropical<br \/>\n  Storm Norbert forecast shows no strengthening from here.<\/p>\n<h3>Where is Norbert headed?<\/h3>\n<p>  Storm Norbert forecast shows no strengthening from here.<\/p>\n<h3>Where is Norbert headed?<\/h3>\n<p>Norbert is moving west-northwest near 13 mph and is expected to continue west-northwestward to westward for the next few days, south of a low- to mid-level<br \/>\n  subtropical ridge. The track crosses into the Central Pacific basin Monday, September 14.<\/p>\n<h3>When will Norbert dissipate?<\/h3>\n<p>Gradual weakening is expected after about 12 hours as vertical wind shear increases. NHC forecasts a tropical depression by 8 AM HST Tuesday, a<br \/>\n  post-tropical remnant low by 8 PM HST Tuesday, and dissipation by 8 AM HST Wednesday, September 16.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Sources:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/ep14\/ep142026.public.017.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Storm Norbert Public Advisory Number 17<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/ep14\/ep142026.discus.017.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 17<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/ep14\/ep142026.fstadv.017.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast\/Advisory Number 17<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/ep14\/ep142026.discus.012.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 12 (Saturday<br \/>\n  comparison)<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/ep15\/ep152026.discus.001.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhc.noaa.gov\/archive\/2026\/NORBERT.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">NHC Tropical Storm Norbert advisory archive (all products)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div style=\"background: #000000; padding: 20px 24px; margin: 20px 0; border-radius: 4px;\">\n<p style=\"color: #ffffff; font-size: 16px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0 0 6px 0;\">Get Severe Weather Alerts for Your Location<\/p>\n<p style=\"color: rgba(255,255,255,0.9); margin: 0 0 14px 0;\">When any NWS watch, warning, or advisory is issued for your area, iAlert sends you an immediate<br \/>\n  notification by email, text message, or phone call, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.<\/p>\n<p>  <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/services\/severe-weather-alerts.php\" style=\"background: #C41226; color: #ffffff; padding: 10px 22px; text-decoration: none; \n  border-radius: 3px; font-weight: bold; display: inline-block;\">Sign Up for Severe Weather Alerts &rarr;<\/a>\n  <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Tropical Storm Norbert forecast: 45 mph winds about 1,375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, gradual weakening, no coastal watches in effect.<span class=\"more\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/news-events\/tropical-storm-norbert-forecast-sep-13\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":5676,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","rank_math_focus_keyword":"Tropical Storm Norbert forecast","rank_math_title":"Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast: 45 mph, No Danger to Hawaii","rank_math_description":"Tropical Storm Norbert forecast: 45 mph winds about 1,375 miles east of Hilo, Hawaii, gradual weakening, no coastal watches in effect."},"categories":[719],"tags":[151],"class_list":["post-5673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-events","tag-tropical-storm"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5673"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5677,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5673\/revisions\/5677"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5676"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5673"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5673"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5673"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}