![\"Tropical](\"https:\/\/ialert.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/09\/ialert-tropical-storm-polo-forecast-track-mexico-september-21-2026.jpg\")
\n hurricane tracker<\/a> infrared satellite view at 8:40 AM PDT (9:40 AM CST) Monday, September 21, 2026, with the Tropical Storm Polo forecast track from
\n the 9 AM CST advisory. The green S marks Polo’s current position as a tropical storm, the orange marker is the Category 2 hurricane forecast for 6 PM
\n Monday, and red M markers show major hurricane strength from Tuesday through 6 AM Saturday. The yellow line on the coast marks the Tropical Storm Watch
\n from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. The shaded cone shows the probable track of the center, not the size of the storm. Data: NOAA National
\n Hurricane Center.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
Tropical Storm Polo is rapidly intensifying offshore of southwestern Mexico, centered about 255 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, with
\n maximum sustained winds of 65 mph as of the 9 AM CST advisory on Monday, September 21, 2026. The National Hurricane Center expects Polo to become a
\n hurricane by Monday afternoon and a major hurricane on Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo.<\/p>\n
Key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n Get Severe Weather Alerts for Your Location<\/p>\n When any NWS watch, warning, or advisory is issued for your area, iAlert sends you an immediate notification by email, text message, or phone call, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.<\/p>\n Sign Up for Severe Weather Alerts →<\/a>\n<\/div>\n At 9 AM CST (11 AM EDT) Monday, the center was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 103.4 West, about 255 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo The wind field around Tropical Storm Polo is uneven. Tropical-storm-force winds reach farthest in the southeast quadrant, about 70 miles from the Seas of 13 feet or higher extend up to 50 miles from the center in the northeast, southeast and northwest quadrants and 35 miles to the southwest, The Tropical Storm Watch covers the coast from Tecpan de Galeana, Guerrero, to Punta San Telmo, Michoac\u00e1n, a stretch that includes Zihuatanejo. A The official forecast for Tropical Storm Polo carries the system to 100 mph, a Category 2 hurricane, by 6 PM CST Monday, and to 120 mph, a Category 3 The closest approach in the forecast comes at 6 AM CST Thursday, when the center is projected about 105 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo at 160 Confidence in the path of Tropical Storm Polo is low. The Hurricane Center notes a large north-south spread in the track guidance, with the newest <\/p>\n\n
Where Tropical Storm Polo stands Monday morning<\/h2>\n
\n and about 200 miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds had increased to near 65 mph with higher gusts, and the estimated minimum
\n central pressure was 997 mb (29.44 inches). The system was moving east near 5 mph.<\/p>\n
\n center, and extend about 60 miles in the northeast quadrant, but stop short at roughly 25 miles in the southwest and northwest quadrants. Winds of 58
\n mph reach about 25 miles northeast and southeast of the center and are absent in the western half.<\/p>\n
\n and the National Hurricane Center has requested 3-hourly ship reports within 300 miles of the center.<\/p>\n
\n Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours; forecasters say those conditions are
\n possible there by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. NHC added that the watch will likely be expanded westward later Monday or Monday night.<\/p>\nTropical Storm Polo forecast: rapid intensification toward 160 mph<\/h2>\n
\n major hurricane, by 6 AM CST Tuesday. Strengthening continues to 145 mph Tuesday evening and 155 mph Wednesday morning, with peak intensity of 160 mph,
\n Category 5, forecast from 6 PM CST Wednesday, September 23, through 6 AM CST Thursday, September 24.<\/p>\n
\n mph. The advisory calls for slow eastward or southeastward motion through Monday night, followed by a sharp turn toward the west-northwest or northwest
\n by late Tuesday. A mid-level ridge is expected to build over Mexico by late Tuesday, steering Polo west-northwest or northwest from Wednesday into late
\n week, which could bring the core near or south of the southwestern Mexico coast Thursday and then south of the Baja California Peninsula on
\n Saturday.<\/p>\n
\n forecast nudged southward, and says that although the core is forecast to stay offshore, it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of
\n impacts. NHC’s average track errors run about 115 miles on day 4 and 145 miles on day 5, and average intensity error is about 17 mph each day. The
\n forecast cone shows the probable track of the center, not the size of the storm or the reach of its impacts.<\/p>\n