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\n forecast to pass about 80 miles southeast of South Point as a Category 3 hurricane early Saturday. Source: NOAA National Hurricane Center, Advisory 12,
\n 5 AM HST September 23, 2026.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
The Big Island hurricane threat is rising quickly as Tropical Depression Fifteen-E, centered about 320 miles south-southeast of South Point, Hawaii,
\n at 5 AM HST on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, a hurricane on Thursday, and possibly a major
\n hurricane by the weekend. Forecasters expect rainfall totals of 15 to 20 inches across the Big Island, with maximum amounts near 35 inches, which may
\n produce catastrophic, life-threatening flooding and mudslides in areas of steep terrain.<\/p>\n
Big Island hurricane threat, key points:<\/strong><\/p>\n Get Severe Weather Alerts for Your Location<\/p>\n When any NWS watch, warning, or advisory is issued for your area, iAlert sends you an immediate notification by email, text message, or phone call, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.<\/p>\n Sign Up for Severe Weather Alerts →<\/a>\n<\/div>\n At 5 AM HST (1500 UTC, 8:00 am PDT, 11:00 am EDT) Wednesday, the center of Tropical Depression Fifteen-E was near latitude 14.5 North, longitude The depression was moving west-northwest near 6 mph. A tropical depression has sustained winds of 38 mph or less; a tropical storm runs 39 to 73 mph, No watches or warnings were in effect at advisory time. The National Hurricane Center, which is issuing the Central Pacific Hurricane Center For now the Big Island hurricane threat is a forecast rather than an observation. The system is still a depression, the closest approach is roughly Forecasters expect the west-northwest motion to continue for the next day or so, followed by a sharp turn to the north and north-northeast on The official forecast brings Fifteen-E to tropical storm strength by 2 PM HST Wednesday, to a Category 1 hurricane at 75 mph by 2 PM HST Thursday, Uncertainty is real and quantified: NHC average track errors run about 175 miles on day 4 and 230 miles on day 5, with intensity errors near 23 mph Advisory 12 forecast track behind the Big Island hurricane threat.<\/strong> Distances are measured from South Point, the southern tip of the <\/p>\n\n
Where the Big Island hurricane threat stands now<\/h2>\n
\n 154.4 West, about 320 miles south-southeast of South Point, Hawaii, and about 525 miles south-southeast of Honolulu. Maximum sustained winds were near
\n 35 mph with higher gusts, and the minimum central pressure was estimated at 1004 mb (29.65 inches).<\/p>\n
\n a hurricane 74 mph or more, and a major hurricane is Category 3 or higher at 111 mph or more.<\/p>\n
\n advisories on this system, states that a Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for a portion of the state later today, and that
\n interests across the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the system. The next complete advisory is due at 11 AM HST (5:00 pm EDT). If you are
\n unclear on the difference between a watch and a warning, iAlert covers the terms in know the hurricane hazard terms<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\n three days out, and that is the window in which preparation is advised<\/p>\nForecast track and intensity behind the Big Island hurricane threat<\/h2>\n
\n Thursday that continues through the end of the week. On that track, the system approaches the Big Island of Hawaii on Friday and Saturday.<\/p>\n
\n and to a peak of 115 mph at both the 2 AM HST Saturday, September 26, and 2 AM HST Sunday, September 27, forecast points. The closest forecast point to
\n South Point, Hawaii, is about 80 miles southeast of it at 2 AM HST Saturday, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds; the closest point to Honolulu
\n is about 230 miles south-southeast at 2 AM HST Sunday.<\/p>\n
\n each day. The forecast cone shows the probable track of the center, not the size of the storm or the reach of its impacts, so the Big Island hurricane
\n threat is not confined to the line on the map.<\/p>\n
\n Big Island.<\/p>\n