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Hurricane Dorian Update 5:00am August 30, 2019

…DORIAN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY…
…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…23.8N 69.1W
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 530 MI…850 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…979 MB…28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the
northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for…
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 69.1 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the day. A slower west-northwestward
to westward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue
through the weekend. On this track, Dorian should move over the
Atlantic well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane later today. Dorian
is likely to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane while it moves
near the northwestern Bahamas and approaches the Florida peninsula
through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from an earlier
Hurricane Hunter mission is 979 mb (28.91 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday
night or Sunday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the
northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

The northwestern Bahamas and coastal sections of the Southeast
United States…6 to 12 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The central Bahamas…1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas and the southeastern United States coast during the
next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

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