The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast is below-normal, but that’s not a reason to relax. NOAA released its 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 21, giving the season a 55% chance of being below normal, a 35% chance of near normal, and a 10% chance of above normal.
The agency is calling for 8–14 named storms, 3–6 hurricanes, and 1–3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). An average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This year’s forecast sits below that baseline across every category.
2026 Season at a Glance
| 2026 Forecast | Average Season | |
|---|---|---|
| Named Storms | 8–14 | 14 |
| Hurricanes | 3–6 | 7 |
| Major Hurricanes (Cat 3+) | 1–3 | 3 |
| Season Outlook | 55% Below Normal | — |
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Sign Up for Weather Alerts →Why Below-Normal?
El Niño is the dominant driver. NOAA expects it to develop and intensify through the heart of hurricane season. El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic tropical activity by increasing upper-level wind shear, strong winds high in the atmosphere that tear apart developing storms before they can organize.
Two factors push back in the opposite direction: Atlantic Ocean temperatures are running slightly warmer than normal, and trade winds are expected to be weaker than average. Both conditions favor storm development.
| Climate Factor | Effect on Season |
|---|---|
| El Niño developing | Suppresses storm activity; increases upper-level wind shear |
| Atlantic SSTs slightly above normal | Favors storm development |
| Trade winds weaker than average | Favors storm development |
The net result is a forecast that leans below normal, but not dramatically so. El Niño is expected to be the dominant influence, but the competing factors keep this from being a strongly suppressed season.
Don’t Let “Below-Normal” Mean Off Guard
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast carries one caveat that NOAA emphasized repeatedly. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast doesn’t change the core reality — NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham put it plainly:: “Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”
That is not a throwaway line. Below-normal seasons still produce landfalling hurricanes. The forecast describes total seasonal activity, not where or when any individual storm will hit. A season with eight named storms can still put a Category 4 hurricane on your doorstep.
What NOAA Is Deploying This Season
Several meaningful improvements are coming to hurricane forecasting in 2026:
| New Capability | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Drone integration | Small uncrewed aircraft data feeds into NOAA’s forecast model for the first time; improves hurricane intensity accuracy by 10% |
| Improved forecast cone | NHC’s cone graphic now includes watches and warnings for inland areas across the continental U.S., Hawaii, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands |
| Expanded flood mapping | NOAA’s Flood Inundation Mapping expands from 60% to nearly 100% of the U.S. population by late September 2026 |
| AI weather models | Integrated alongside traditional forecasting systems and next-generation satellite data |
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast: When to Watch
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast covers June 1 through November 30. Peak activity typically falls between mid-September and October. NOAA will update this outlook in early August.
2026 Atlantic Storm Names
The World Meteorological Organization has designated the following names for the 2026 season:
Arthur • Bertha • Cristobal • Dolly • Edouard • Fay • Gonzalo • Hanna • Isaias • Josephine • Kyle • Leah • Marco • Nana • Omar • Paulette • Rene • Sally • Teddy • Vicky • Wilfred
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Sign Up for Hurricane Alerts →Source: NOAA 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, May 21, 2026
